What The Business Of Video Will Look Like in 2012

What The Business Of Video Will Look Like In 2012 http://t.co/72GsqhBN

Of course all predictions are subject to change but Steven Rosenbaum takes a shot at it in this Fast Company article. Naturally Fast Company are going to be more focused on the business side, rather than production side, so no “large sensor” type predictions here instead the five predictions are below with my comments.

Prediction #1. 2012 is the year all video goes a la carte.

I seriously doubt that all content will go a la carte in 2012. Hopefully some moves in that direction but to have even all cable channels available a la carte in 2012 is highly unlikely because it’s just too big a shift in thinking to happen that quickly. That it is a trend that will grow somewhat in 2012, is likely.

Prediction #2. 2012 will be the year of the OverTheTop revolution.

“Over the top” = “cord cutters” = “Internet set top boxes” like Boxee, Roku and Apple TV (among others). Definitely a trend toward dropping the cable subscription in favor of broadcast HD (free with an antenna) and a combination of Hulu and other sources for content, but will this year be the tipping point? Very highly unlikely. Cable subscriptions seem to be dropping but nowhere near fast enough for any cable company to fee the pressure in 2012.

Prediction #3. YouTube and Google TV will merge (really this time). 

Perhaps, but we won’t really care as all the action is around YouTube where money is going into original production.

Prediction #4.  Yahoo will emerge as a big creator and distributor of video.

Again, perhaps, but within the span of the next 12 months we won’t necessarily see the results. Yahoo went down the path of content creation a few years back and lost a boatload of money on it. As a company that doesn’t have strong reserves (or necessarily a strong future at all) to pull off a major turnaround and be a player in creating and distributing video with 12 months, it’s highly unlikely. Maybe the deal to distribute ABC News will come to something but it’s hard to get excited over that single deal indicating anything significant.

Prediction #5.  Business video will arrive as a real targetable business opportunity.

Yep, got to agree with this one. The use of video in business promotion – both online and in real life – is growing dramatically. Branded entertainment – where the brand pays to produce a program(s) directly – is in major growth and shaping up to be one of the viable methods of funding production in the future. (There will be an upcoming blog post summarizing the sorts of deals done in recent years.)

Rosenbaum finishes with:

The next twelve months are going to be transformative. Web video will become simply “video”–made everywhere and consumed everywhere. And brands and companies, who’ve contemplated using video to tell their stories or connect with consumers, will find that the train is leaving the station. It’s time to get on board the video express, or be left with an unpunched ticket in your hand.

That I also agree with.