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3D at the movies, check. 3D at home??

3D at the movies, check. 3D in the home, not so much. http://bit.ly/cxmsfF Is 3D a fad or….

Comparatively, only 5 percent of those surveyed said they had watched a 3-D film on TV — and very few seemed to want to, with only about one in six respondents said they were likely to buy a 3-D TV for their next purchase. Only about a quarter of respondents said they would prefer to watch TV in 3-D if it was available, with a third saying they would prefer not to. A whole 42 percent were unsure if they’d prefer to watch 3-D TV, which signals unfamiliarity with the technology.

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What will the browser look like in 5 years?

What will the browser look like in 5 years? http://oreil.ly/d5tLiK 5 years ago browser “just an app” now email, docs, maps – the Internet, in fact is the browser for most of us.

But with faster javascript, the changes coming with HTML5, Canvas and Video tags, and the amazing power of CSS to style the interface, and it’s not the same beast any more. (Just try using IE 5 on OS 9 to even check email: can’t be done!)

And, of course, any move to cloud computing will require a browser.

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Stroome builds community features to online editing application

Stroome builds community features to Kultura online editing app. http://bit.ly/akWGCb I don’t think Avid need be worried by this competition to the upcoming cloud editing effort (mentioned in my previous post).

Stroome allows users to upload footage and mix these clips with photos, audio tracks and other video footage available online in a video editor that resembles something like iMovie, albeit with less features. The resulting video can then be saved as a project and shared with either a closed group of collaborators or the entire Stroome community. The final video can be shared through various social networks, but there’s no function to republish content on YouTube or any other video sharing site yet.

And from Avid:

At NAB, Avid is demonstrating technology that aims to fulfill the vision: edit anywhere, on anything. Behind this vision are some core beliefs:

• We believe you should be able to access your media anywhere-without copying it.

• We believe that you shouldn’t have to worry about codecs and formats for either ingest or delivery. Everything should just work.

• We believe that you should be able to edit in the edit bay, in the cafeteria, at home, on location, in the airport lounge, or even at 33,000 feet-without compromise.

• We believe that if the only hardware you have with you is a netbook-you should still be able to edit.

• We believe that not just media, but software too can be streamed to the laptop-truly making any computer an editor.

You probably have those same beliefs. And if seeing is believing, you’ll just have to come check out our web-based editing technology demo at NAB.

I think I smell a trend. Not for everyone today or tomorrow (bandwidth for media upload remains a concern even though downstream bandwidth seems to work ok) but this type of collaborative editing tool is coming. Oh, and in the Media Composer-esque Java App there’s a nice little “Export {timeline} to Final Cut Pro XML”. It was then I began to believe that Avid does stand for “Open” and “Collaborative” as they had been telling us.

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Apple Pro Apps Interesting Technology Video Technology

What are my thoughts on NAB 2010?

By now you’ve likely been exposed to news from NAB – at least I hope so. If not head over to Oliver Peter’s blog and read up on what you missed. Rather than rehash the news I’d like to put a little perspective on it.

Digital Production BuZZ

The little show that I co-created nearly five years after a successful five years with DV Guys (although I was only managing editor for the last 3 years of that show) has now been the official NAB Podcast for 2009 and 2010. Big props to Larry Jordan, Cirina Catania, Debbie Price and the amazing team they put together for NAB 2010. I filed some special reports, which you can hear among the more than 70 shows the team pulled together in the six days of NAB.

3D Everywhere

Whether it’s Panasonic’s “Lens to Lounge” or Sony’s “Camera to Couch” 3D was everywhere. Everywhere except actually being able to do something with all the 3D content we’re being pushed to produce. I’m aware that the top grossing movies last year were 3D and 3D movies perform better than 2D. I just don’t see that as being relevant to my universe where I don’t distribute my work through a major studio to 2000 cinemas.

So short of that, where’s the outlet for all the 3D? YouTube plays 3D (but is incredibly hard to monetize). The Blu-ray 3D spec is finalized but no shipping players, burners or encoders are available.

While I have no real quibble with the cinema experience – although films need to be designed for 3D, and shot with 3D in mind, to be successful 3D experiences (and few are) – I am very skeptical about 3D in the home, at least for the next couple of years. The problems of the glasses – I multitask a lot of the time while watching TV, what about visitors, or preparing dinner? – and the very different nature seems to limit the future of 3D in the home to those who have dedicated home theaters and dedicated, monotasking viewing time.

The missing Apple

Of course, if you’re a regular reader you’ll know it came as no surprise that Apple wasn’t at NAB. They don’t do trade shows any more so it was highly unrealistic to expect anything at NAB this year, next year, or any year. When they have something to announce, they’ll announce it.

You’ll also be aware that I believe Apple is doing a lot of what they need to do with Final Cut Pro to make it the “awesome” release that Steve Jobs tells us it will be. Maybe 2011 some time, but more likely early 2012 for the next awesome Final Cut Studio release. Or whenever Apple is ready!

Avid Media Composer 5 and editing in the cloud

The new management (current management) at Avid certainly appear to be spot on track. Media Composer 3.5, 4 and now 5 have all been great releases. As more of the work this management team are pushing comes to the public, the more I see the company back on track.

In fact hearing “interoperable” and “openness” sprinkled regularly into the press event and marketing materials seems slightly out of character from the old Avid, but is very welcome. Direct editing of QuickTime media, HDSLR or RED media via AMA for quick turn-around content is a huge advancement. Improvements to audio filters (and eventual round-tripping to a future version of ProTools) are long-standing requests from Avid’s customers. Even the “expensive” monitoring (output only) requirement has gone thanks to support for an MXO Mini for monitoring. (I wish that was an option back in January – it would have saved a client of mine about $18K!)

While only a “technology demonstration” at this point, Avid’s “edit in the cloud” (i.e. over the Internet or from a Local Server) looks like the real deal. Scott Simmons has a review of the demo over at Pro Video Coalition. Avid is back and we like it.

Adobe CS5

I doubt there’s much to add to Adobe’s CS5 announcements. The Mercury Engine is a major step forward in performance and it will take the others a while to catch up. To be competitive Apple would have to rewrite FCP to 64 bit and then implement Grand Central Dispatch and OpenCL to deliver that level of performance (and that’s what I expect they’re doing). Adobe’s platform-agnostic code (at the core) has made it easier for them to move to 64 bit, and tight integration with Nvidia’s CUDA engine, on top of some mighty software optimizations, gives the performance boost.

The whole Master Collection is a must-have for post production for After Effects, Encore, Photoshop and Illustrator alone. Premiere Pro is a bonus and could well become the Swiss Army Knife of editing tools as it supports pretty much any format natively.

Pick of the show

The pick of the show for me is, without a doubt, Get: phonetic search for Final Cut Pro. Search your clips for specific words wherever they occur. The exact opposite of Adobe’s Transcription (although that can be boosted by feeding it a script in CS5) Get does not attempt to derive meaning from the waveforms that make up the audio. Instead it predicts what the waveform for your search terms should look like, then goes and tries to match it in your media.

It has certainly set my thinking cap buzzing. What we could do at Assisted Editing with this technology would be amazing – almost delivering my “magic future” for metadata I spoke of at my two presentations. But for now, Get is an amazingly powerful tool that every documentary filmmaker will want to be using.

Hardware trends you might have missed

Not many of the main news streams picked up on the trend to multiple cards, or multi-channel cards, this NAB. Obviously 3D capable cards were announced (by AJA and Blackmagic Design) but AJA also announced that multiple Kona cards can co-exist in the one host computer; while Blackmagic Design announced a dual channel card, and Matrox promised a four channel I/O card.

What we’ll be using this multi-channel capability for, I’m not quite sure, as no software supports it, yet. Except, Blackmagic Design used to have a two channel software switcher in their product range (although it seems to be missing from their website right now). A dual channel Decklink card, with software switcher, makes a very powerful and inexpensive studio or location tool with a Mac Pro. Seriously undercuts dedicated switchers from Focus Enhancements or Pansonic.

$999 daVinci

Blackmagic Design almost deserve a post of their own on the NAB announcement (that you no doubt followed here) of the $999 software-only daVinci. Scott Simmons reminded me in a Tweet that I had accurately predicted a dramatic price drop for the daVinci system. What I didn’t predict was how far, and how fast, Grant Petty would drop the price. What I expected to come in at $60K was announced as a turnkey system for $30,000! I didn’t expect the software only version, although in reality, with hardware, monitors, scopes and storage, that’s still likely a $20,000 investment, for what used to be a minimum of $300,000 or more.

This is, of course, consistent with everything that Grant Petty has done with Blackmagic Design. I remember the first Decklink announcement (on the DV Guys show) at under $1,000 and everyone wondered how the industry would cope. Those cards are now much more powerful, and even cheaper, and now we’re going down the same path with daVinci.

Friends, fun and the Future

For me, NAB is as much about friends as it is about the technology. It’s a time when my virtual communities intrude into real space. Once again, NAB proved to be two days too long and four nights too short. With about 20 parties happening Monday night and a similar number Tuesday, we need more nights to spread them over, and fewer days. I was done with the show floor by Tuesday afternoon and there were two days to run.

This year’s MediaMotion Ball was a great social event, as it always is; running into the Adobe party following. Tuesday’s Supermeet broke new ground with the “Three A’s” on stage together for the first time.

I made my contribution to the show via my Supermeet Magazine article, The Mundane and Magic Future of Metadata, which I also delivered as a presentation at the ProMax event and in the Post Pit on the show floor. The Supermeet Magazine should be available soon from Supermeet.com.

The future of post production automation is metadata. Check out the article and tell me what you think.

And that’s my NAB wrap for 2010. Other than to say, worst WiFi experience ever at the Sahara. Expensive and slow. It’s time for broadband to be included in the price of a room, like air conditioning (didn’t use); the Television (only to get the sign up details for the Internet connection); etc.

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Item of Interest

Google may face challenges open-sourcing VP8

Google may face challenges open-sourcing VP8. http://bit.ly/auBaEl Oh shoot! Google may not have license to open source. Sadness.

Although Google has not yet officially announced that it will open-source the VP8 codec and push for its adoption in the HTML5 <video> tag, some sources think they may not have the right to do it. Modern codecs are all built on cross-licensed technologies: it’s hard to do something completely original that doesn’t build on others’ work.

Today, Betanews asked a video technology business source whether our theory held water — whether technology owners could legally challenge Google, or other users, if it attempts to offer a free license for technology without the owners’ consent or license. The source replied affirmatively. While Google may very well own rights to a proprietary version of VP8 for its own sale and licensing purposes, outside of On2’s own patents, if Google and other users are not licensed under applicable patents, the “patent-free” state of that codec could be challenged in court, Betanews was told.

VP8 is undoubtedly a better codec than Ogg Theora (built, as it turns out, on a very early On2 codec – VP3!) and would make a better choice for the open-source alternative in the <video> tag, but if Google doesn’t have the right to open-source it, then all bets are off.

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Great NAB roundup from Oliver Peters

Great NAB roundup from Oliver Peters. http://bit.ly/aADloT Saves me writing half my NAB roundup!

Oliver’s Digital Films blog is one of my must-read blogs and his NAB roundup is spot on. I share his thinking about Apple and potential marketshare damage (limited) from no NAB 2010 announcements, and his skepticism about 3D. Beyond that it’s a good roundup of what was announced.

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Item of Interest

Is piracy killing the music industry?

Is piracy killing the music industy? http://bit.ly/d2VLtf Not by any measure that is based on fact. Music is growing, CDs are shrinking.

The music industry is growing quite nicely from every possible measure, except that the RIAA/Record Labels refuse to consider that there is any “music industry” that doesn’t include them. Recorded music on CD sales have been dropping because of digital downloads (growing dramatically) and independent musicians doing it without labels, and making more money than they did with a label. (And it works for big established acts, leaving a label, as well as artists just starting out.)

According to statistics taken from the RIAA shipment database, between 2004 and 2008 the number of single tracks sold in the U.S. increased by 669 percent while the number of album sales dropped 42 percent. Consequently, the income of the big labels suffered since single track sales are less profitable than full albums. As can be seen in the chart below, the number of music ‘units’ sold continues to grow rapidly nonetheless.

See the graph in the linked article.

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Swedish Band – out of contract…

Swedish Band – out of contract with label – releases “CD” as magazine: free music, added value around it. http://bit.ly/cSNMKy

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Item of Interest

Head of “Independent” studio takes home $1m salary

Head of “Independent” studio takes home $821,540 cash + $215, 192. http://bit.ly/dxtfla A real independent could make 2 movies for that!

With a combined income of just over a million dollars, just what is the head of “The Film Departnent” thinking? The Film Department is a small independent studio, that so far has released one movie of the three they’ve produced. They’re looking to raise $69 million in an IPO, and immediately spending 1.5% on their CEO’s salary this year, and another two staff members account for that much again. So 3% of your raised capital or more accurately nearly 8% of the net from the IPO will go to salaries for three executives this year:

The Film Department has lost a total of $29.7 million since 2007 and generated no revenue until last year. Gill, who was president of Warner Independent Pictures before founding The Film Department, has earned more than $2.6 million in that time.

In addition, the company has paid Gill’s wife, Hanna Weg, $250,000 for screenwriting services on two projects in development and optioned a script by her for which she has not yet been paid.

Seriously, this is what’s wrong with independent production or so-called independent “studios”.

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Item of Interest

Steve Jobs says “YouTube does HD” – no need for Blu-ray?

Steve Jobs says “YouTube does HD Video”, so no need for Blu-Ray? http://bit.ly/9PRRwD I’ve long said no Blu-ray on OS X ever, Jobs agrees

I have long held that Apple was never going to support Blu-ray Movie Playback on OS X. Partly because the internal memory encryption isn’t there in the OS, but also because Apple was moving toward Internet download as the primary distribution system – one that they have much more control over than Blu-ray.

Seems that Steve Jobs is owning up to the same thing. So don’t hold your breath for a Blu-ray enabled “DVD” Studio Pro. Not going to happen. I think we have all the Blu-ray authroing we’re going to get from Apple, via “Share” in Final Cut Studio (2009).